Strategy

Preflop Tournament Masterclass — Jonathan Little

Expected Value (EV)

Every decision is evaluated by its long-run average. The result of any single hand is irrelevant — only the mean over thousands of hands matters.

EV:%win × (amount won) + %lose × (amount lost)

Example: call $100 into $300 pot with 30% equity → EV = 0.30 × $300 + 0.70 × (−$100) = +$20

Pot Odds

When facing a bet, compare the pot you can win to the price you pay.

Required equity:Call / (Call + Pot)
½-pot → 25%pot → 33%2× pot → 40%

Ranges & Combinations

  • Never think about a single hand — think about the range of hands your opponent can hold.
  • Unpaired: 16 combos (12o + 4s). Paired: 6 combos. Blockers reduce counts.
  • Range types: linear (best hands, initial opens), polarized (nuts + bluffs for 3-bets), condensed (medium-strength calls).
  • Capped ranges (caller) are more exploitable than uncapped ranges (3-bettor).

Most profit comes from opponents making mistakes you do not make. You cannot win with a rigid 'system' — you must adapt to opponents and stack depth.

ICM & Chips Change Value

Tournament chips have diminishing marginal value: doubling your stack does not double your equity. Near the money bubble or pay-jumps you need more raw equity to justify calling an all-in. Large stacks pressure medium stacks; short stacks near elimination can push wider.

Stack-to-Pot Ratio (SPR)

SPR:Effective stack ÷ Pot size

High SPR (deep) → implied-odds hands gain value; top pair is marginal. Low SPR (shallow) → big cards & pairs dominate; TPTK is often stackable.